Eurasian economic integration and the possibility of increasing Serbia’s exports to Russia

Stanojević, Nataša (2020) Eurasian economic integration and the possibility of increasing Serbia’s exports to Russia. In: Russia and Serbia in the Contemporary World : bilateral relations, challenges and opportunities. Institute of International politics and economics, Belgrade, pp. 39-56. ISBN 978-86-7067-278-9

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine the effects of Serbian participation in the Eurasian economic integration processes on the export to the Russian Federation. The general hypothesis is that these benefits far outweigh the gains provided by the formal aspects of the agreement (customs rates, exemption lists, etc.). These assumptions are proven by statistical analysis and construction of an extended gravity model. The gravity model has determined the effects of several factors on Russia’s imports. These are the size of import markets and the distance from Russia, as common elements, but also dummy variables related to membership in Eurasian integrations, the BRICS and the SCO. The model and coefficients were then applied to the Russian Federation’s imports from Serbia, and the results showed that Serbia’s accession to the EAEU could increase exports to Russia by almost a third. These expected positive effects are not the result of amendments to the agreement, but of the additional opening of a large Russian market to partner countries for the sake of strengthening alliances and influence in these countries.

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