The EU-China Trade Relations amid Tariff Conflicts and WTO Crisis: Implications for Serbia

Nikolić, Jovana (2025) The EU-China Trade Relations amid Tariff Conflicts and WTO Crisis: Implications for Serbia. In: Risks for Serbian Foreign Policy in the Fragmentation of the International Order — Actors, Processes, and Outcomes. Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, pp. 111-135. ISBN 978-86-7067-363-2

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Abstract

This paper examines the evolving trade relationship between the European Union (EU) and the People’s Republic of China within the context of rising protectionism, escalating tariff conflicts, and the ongoing crisis within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Despite a longstanding commitment from both the EU and China to multilateralism, their divergent economic models and strategic priorities have increasingly brought systemic tensions to the fore. China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 marked a turning point in EU-China trade relations, enabling deeper economic ties. However, growing economic asymmetries and political divergences have prompted the EU to adopt a more critical perspective, as encapsulated in its 2019 Strategic Outlook, which simultaneously characterises China as a partner, economic competitor, and systemic rival. The research employs a qualitative case study method, concentrating on the EU-China tariff conflicts from 2018 to 2024. This timeframe captures the escalation of trade tensions and offers valuable insights into the responses of both entities to global trade disruptions and crisis within the WTO, which intensified around 2018. The study draws on the analysis of official documents from the EU and China, which includes strategic outlooks, trade policy communications, and summit conclusions, in addition to relevant reports and publications from the WTO. Beyond the bilateral dimension, the paper extends its analysis to the implications of these trade frictions for Serbia. Positioned between its deepening economic ties with China and its aspirations for EU membership, Serbia faces both opportunities and constraints, as EU-China trade tensions increasingly shape its external economic environment. The paper concludes that, despite systemic rivalries, pragmatic cooperation between the EU and China within multilateral frameworks remains a viable path forward. However, for countries like Serbia, maintaining strategic balance requires a careful policymaking, particularly in light of the ongoing WTO crisis and intensifying EU-China competition over trade and influence in Southeast Europe.

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