Profiling Serbian Population: Exploring the Rise of Pro-Russian Leanings

Stojanović, Bogdan and Stanojević, Nataša (2024) Profiling Serbian Population: Exploring the Rise of Pro-Russian Leanings. In: Global Security and International Relations After the Escalation of the Ukrainian Crisis. Institute of International Politics and Economics; Faculty of Security, University; Sapienza University, Department of Political Science; Austin Peay State University, Belgrade; Rome; Clarksville, pp. 570-591. ISBN 978-86-7067-328-1

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Abstract

Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, there has been an undeniable upsurge in Russian influence across various regions and developing nations. Among the Serbian population Russia enjoys an unprecedented level of support. Pro-Russian sentiments have never been so widespread in post-war history, as evidenced by numerous polls. The objective of this research is to understand spreading of these public sentiments. The data is collected through a survey involving 1,200 respondents from the territory of Serbia, but the statistical description of the obtained data is only the first scientific goal. A deeper analysis requires assessment of the impact of each independent variable on the formation of the Serbian population’s stance towards Russia, which demands to employ an empirical model. Given the categorical nature of all variables, Logistic regression was applied. Within this model, the survey questions treated as independent variables, while the focal point of analysis is the dependent variable, namely, respondents’ commitment to establishing closer ties with Russia. Independent variables (and survey questions) divided into four categories: 1. the perception of the Kosovo and Metohija issue; 2. attitudes and opinions held by the Serbian population regarding the eu; 3. the value system of the respondents (embodied in LGBT movement and traditional family); and 4. socio-demographic characteristics of the population, such as the age and gender of respondents. The findings have unveiled that the most influential factor, characterized by the highest coefficient and utmost statistical significance, is the commitment of Serbs to maintain south province Kosovo and Metohija within Serbia. Subsequently, the variables representing disappointed expectations from the EU, negative attitude towards non-raditional values, as well as the age of the respondent, exhibit statistically significant albeit less pronounced impacts on pro-Russian attitudes.

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