Western Balkans and Ukrainian Crisis 2014–2024

Kostić Šulejić, Marina and Blagojević, Veljko (2024) Western Balkans and Ukrainian Crisis 2014–2024. In: Global Security and International Relations After the Escalation of the Ukrainian Crisis. Institute of International Politics and Economics; Faculty of Security, University; Sapienza University, Department of Political Science; Austin Peay State University, Belgrade; Rome; Clarksville, pp. 455-479. ISBN 978-86-7067-328-1

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Abstract

The paper explores the changes that have occurred in the foreign, security, and defense policies and capabilities of Croatia and Serbia, as the two most important states for the Western Balkans stability in the context of the ten-year ukrainian crisis and changing international relations and order toward the more conflictual one. These changes were significantly expressed at the beginning of the ukrainian crisis in 2014, with Crimea joining the russian Federation, strengthened in 2022 with the russian military intervention, and still ongoing with the greater polarization between the eu and NATo on the one side, russia on the other, and with the significant role of rising powers like China and India on the third. The authors claim that the ukrainian crisis reflected the global trends on the regional level thus bringing more polarization, prospect for conflictual relations, and militarisation instead of immersion of the whole region into the Western structures on the geopolitical grounds. The analysis of the policies and comparison of the cases of Croatia and Serbia are conducted according to three variables: 1. narratives on the Crimean crisis in 2014 and russian intervention in ukraine in 2022, 2. measures taken regarding russia and ukraine, 3. changes of their capabilities. The authors conclude that with the ongoing conflict in ukraine, the potential for new crises in the Balkans rises. Countries’ narratives, especially that of Croatia which constantly victimizes itself, create new mistrust and distance between the two countries and peoples, Croatian eu membership which is constantly highlighted against the Serbian lack of harmonization with the eu foreign and security policy further distances Serbia from the eu, and improvements in defense capabilities, conducted on the various grounds and with opposing actors triggers the arms race, thus complicating the mutual relations of the Western Balkan countries and slowing down the prospects for european integration instead of fostering them on geopolitical grounds.

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