The Second Armed Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh – Causes and Implications

Jović-Lazić, Ana (2021) The Second Armed Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh – Causes and Implications. In: Convergence and Confrontation: The Balkans and the Middle East in the 21st Century. Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade, pp. 211-240. ISBN 978-86-7067-293-2

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Abstract

The article is to contribute to the discourse of the latest armed conflict in Nagorno Karabakh by analyzing its causes and implications. Starting with the failure of the diplomatic process, it examines various factors, ranging from imbalances in local armed forces to broader changes in the region's geopolitical order that contributed to a shift in dynamics in this unresolved dispute and the outbreak of a new armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan defeated Armenia decisively thanks to military superiority gained through increased military spending and political, military, and logistical assistance from Turkey. With this in mind, Turkey's role in the dynamics of this conflict is regarded as crucial. Furthermore, given Russia's traditional role as a mediator in unresolved conflicts in the post-Soviet space, changes in Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Armenian relations are analyzed as factors that influenced the creation of conditions in which Azerbaijan would feel strong enough to launch a new war. Russia's response is being considered in particular because, despite initial restraint, it has preserved its role as a key mediator in achieving peace in the region, seizing the opportunity to further strengthen it by deploying peacekeeping troops. Although the armistice agreement ended the war, the question of the disputed area's final status remained unresolved. Because this is a critical issue for both parties, a future flare-up of the hostilities can only be avoided if Azerbaijan and Armenia achieve an agreement on the final political status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

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