NATO vs. Russia: Impact on Balkan Regional Security

Ponomareva, Elena and Proroković, Dušan (2021) NATO vs. Russia: Impact on Balkan Regional Security. In: Europe in changes: The old continent at a new crossroads. Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade; Faculty of Security Studies at the University of Belgrade, Belgrade, pp. 117-137. ISBN 978-86-7067-282-6

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Abstract

NATO, led by the US, and Russia are important factors in the regional security of the Balkans and all Balkan states individually. In the post-bipolar world order, which is marked by strong US domination after the collapse of the USSR, Russia’s influence has weakened. However, by stabilizing the internal situation and then consolidating its position in international relations, Russia has returned to the scene and used the military, political (including soft power and cultural ties) and economic power (which is primarily visible in the energy sector) to restore its presence in the region of the Balkans, which is especially noticeable after 2008. However, due to almost two decades of American domination, the regional security dynamics have changed greatly in relation to the time of bipolarity, and part of the Balkan states that belonged to the Eastern Bloc or emerged from the disintegration of Yugoslavia have already become NATO members (Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia). In such circumstances, the United States has an advantage. They are a key factor in the regional security of the Balkans and they are trying to prevent the growth of Russian influence. This research will explain the relationship between NATO and Russia, their long-term goals in the region, as well as the causes of lasting rivalry. The general hypothesis of this research is: the conflict formation within which the long-term interests of NATO and Russia are opposed will be maintained in the long run, and this will be reflected on the regional security of the Balkans. The historical method, comparative method and qualitative content analysis were used in the research, as well as modelling in the context of the future foreign policy positioning of the US and Russia and reflections on regional security. The conclusion of the authors is that the United States has no interest in stopping the planned expansion, while on the other hand, Russia is not in a position to allow them to do so. Because of everything, the Balkans remain a region where the establishment of a kind of balance of power between NATO and Russia is being monitored.

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