Transatlantic Turbulences as a Feature of the Contemporary International System

Lišanin, Mladen (2026) Transatlantic Turbulences as a Feature of the Contemporary International System. In: Squaring the Circle: The New Global Dynamics. Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade, pp. 49-53. ISBN 978-86-7067-373-1

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Abstract

In January 2026, one year into the second presidential term of Donald J. Trump, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, reflected on the condition of the US-EU relationship: “The transatlantic relations have definitely taken a big blow over the last week ... On the European side, we are not willing to junk 80 years of good relations, and we are willing to work for this” (Pala 2026). The statement was made in the midst of tensions triggered by the US administration’s announcement that it would seek to annex Greenland, part of the sovereign territory of Denmark, an EU member state and a loyal NATO ally. But the beginning of Trump’s first term was also marked by transatlantic quarrels in the domain of trade and economic affairs, divergent views on the conflict in Ukraine, and the chronic issue of defence expenditures and security burden-sharing. In terms of security, the issue of the US role in NATO has been one of the key points of Trump’s policy, going back to his first presidential term. His policy approaches underwent some changes over the years, but instinct and the sentiments towards withdrawal persisted. The question of defence expenditures and burden-sharing underlies Trump’s views of the alliance, and although he can be considered successful in terms of pushing the allies towards greater resource allocation, he remains skeptical about the usefulness of NATO in its current form. Since the beginning of Trump’s second administration, the US has replaced the open threats of abandoning the alliance with the policy of “quiet quitting” its structure, by “relinquishing command of the operational-level headquarters, known as Joint Force Commands, responsible for planning and conducting NATO operations, and declining to backfill U.S. service positions at other NATO installations as they come up for renewal” (Bjerg Moller 2026). Economic exchange and trade deficits as transatlantic issues predate Trump’s two presidencies, but his policy response, based on imposing exceptionally high tariffs, threatens to structurally reshape this domain of relations, potentially softening European views on cooperation with China along the way. The administration’s ostensibly pro-Russian positions in the attempts to end the war in Ukraine have pushed many European countries towards creating a Coalition of the Willing, in order to continue supporting Ukraine’s war effort without the US backing – although with dubious prospects of success. While Kaja Kallas is right that the current moment could signify the low point in the history of transatlantic relations, her characterization of the previous eighty years of the relationship can be disputed. ‘Turbulence’ has been the chronic state of transatlantic relations, various crises in communication and the pursuit of common policies mitigated solely by structural factors, reflected in the fact of incomparable US dominance, within the Western bloc, and at times globally (Baranets and Novo 2024). Those circumstances are no longer in place.

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