China’s Road to the Balkans: The Belt and Road Initiative and the Reconfiguration of Regional Relations

Proroković, Dušan (2025) China’s Road to the Balkans: The Belt and Road Initiative and the Reconfiguration of Regional Relations. MGIMO Review of International Relations, 18 (5). pp. 7-30. ISSN 2071-8160

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Abstract

The rise of China as a political and economic actor in the Balkans marks a new stage in the region’s international relations. Through bilateral initiatives with Balkan states, the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and participation in the China–Central and Eastern European Countries (China–CEEC) cooperation framework (formerly the “17+1” platform), Beijing has gained a visible degree of influence – primarily through infrastructure loans, direct investments, and instruments of cultural diplomacy. Considering that less than two decades ago China’s involvement in the region was virtually non-existent, this transformation is significant. Yet, after an initially ambitious phase, China’s influence has evolved unevenly across the Balkans. This divergence reflects shifting attitudes within the United States, NATO, and the European Union toward China. The steady deterioration of U.S.–China relations–and, to a lesser extent, EU–China relations–has constrained Chinese investments, loans, and acquisitions in the region. The article examines China’s completed and ongoing projects, the causes of suspended or abandoned initiatives, and the evolving policies of Balkan governments toward Beijing. Grounded in structural realism, the study argues that the global balance of power directly shapes regional dynamics in the Balkans. Within an anarchic international system, where power is concentrated among major states, smaller countries possess limited agency and must adapt to systemic constraints. Thus, despite evident economic incentives for cooperation with China, many Balkan states avoid deeper engagement, as the potential political costs–particularly the risk of straining relations with the United States and the European Union–outweigh the anticipated economic gains.

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