Global Strategic Narrative Wars: The Battle for Serbia

Mitić, Aleksandar (2024) Global Strategic Narrative Wars: The Battle for Serbia. Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade. ISBN 978-86-7067-341-0

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Abstract

Two key arguments form the basis of this book. First, we live in an era of transition towards multipolarity, and great powers seek legitimacy in the wars of succession by pursuing strategic narratives. The critical battle in the global war of narratives involves the fight between the Western “rules-based order” (RBO) proponents and its challengers, primarily but not exclusively the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China. For its supporters, the RBO is the foundation of liberal internationalism and a resilience mechanism in preserving the post-Cold War order— epitomised by the US “unipolar moment”—against non-Western “autocratic transgression.” For the challengers, the RBO incorporates a set of mechanisms that selectively lean on elements of international law, interpret them freely and creatively, and align them with the interests of the political West, using double standards and the principle of “unique”, sui generis cases to fit the needs, thus effectively undermining the UN system. The second argument of the book is that Serbia has been one the primary “testing grounds” of both strategic narrative wars and the application of RBO, most notably during the NATO 1999 aggression and the EU-US masterminding of “Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence” in 2008, two flagrant violations of international law. These actions have served to propel calls for multipolarity, particularly in Moscow and Beijing, and have caused long-term consequences which underlie some of the most fundamental conflicts of the 21st century. The book looks at global strategic narrative wars from a variety of angles. The prologue introduces the reader to the genesis of modern strategic communication and the importance of the Serbian case through the author’s personal experience as an Agence France-Presse war correspondent from Kosovo and Metohija during the 78 days of NATO bombings in 1999. The personal reflection continues in Chapter 1 with a series of anecdotes stemming from the author’s reporting days for the Tanjug news agency from the European Union and NATO headquarters in the years leading to “Kosovo’s UDI”. In parallel, the book describes the mechanisms of “Manichean” strategic communication during the 1990s and early 2000s amid expanding calls for multipolarity. In Chapter 2, the book argues that great powers’ strategic narratives help us understand today’s competing geopolitical interests, their arenas, and their implications. It underscores the significance of the concept of strategic narratives, connecting it to strategic framing, strategic communication, and grand strategy. Since successful strategic narratives imply connecting words and deeds, the chapter examines statecraft repertoires and shaping concepts. These concepts tie strategic narratives to action. Chapters 3, 4, and 5 analyse the crucial battlegrounds of global narrative competition. The first arena is the narrative war between NATO countries and the Russian Federation and its translation in the conflict in Ukraine. The second is between the US-led West and China, the world’s emerging superpower and critical proponent of new global non-Western initiatives, primarily the flagship Belt and Road Initiative. The third arena, related to the first two, is the “fight for the rest”, primarily for influence in the Global South, for the non-aligned and the hedgers, with implications for competition between the Western RBO and the new political, military, economic, normative and soft power of BRICS. The battle for the “rest” is analysed through the case of Serbia. The book suggests that the Republic of Serbia is a crucial theatre of the global narrative competition. The preface and the introduction paint a scene that points to the importance of events and processes related to Serbia for the global narrative wars. However, Serbia also defines four key actors as part of its “independent” foreign policy—the EU, the US, Russia, and China. After briefly introducing relations between Belgrade and these four actors, the book analyses three main strategic narrative battles fought on Serbian grounds. The first battle relates to the RBO narrative. The issue of Kosovo and Metohija, the precedent of NATO’s 1999 aggression, the claim that the 2008 unilateral declaration of independence was a “unique case”, and the “creative” interpretations of UNSC 1244 and the Dayton Peace Accords call for a fundamental question: Will the “rules-based world order” prevail over Serbia? The second battle refers to NATO’s “open door policy”, which is the enlargement of the Alliance to the east and its consequences for the Balkans, in particular regarding the military neutrality of Serbia (and Republika Srpska). This battle extends the NATO-Russia conflict over the Alliance’s expansion and its geopolitical and security implications. Here, we will look at the cases of the US vs Russia on NATO expansion, the portrayal of Russian- Serbian relations as a hybrid threat and Serbia’s refusal to align with Western restrictive measures against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. Thus, will the NATO alliance further expand in the Western Balkans? Finally, the third battle relates to the issue of strategic alternatives. On one side, the West asserts that Serbia is its “backyard” and “EU membership” is its only option. On the other hand, new multipolar horizons have emerged: cooperation within initiatives (Belt and Road Initiative) and in partnership with rising Eastern and Global South partners (BRICS, SCO), or “simply” a variety of hedging options, including political neutrality. It is an extension of the broader geopolitical battle between the West and China for “the rest”, for the “Global South”, and generally competition over the transformation of the global world order. Beyond the slow accession talks with the EU since 2014, the upgrading of relations with Beijing to the level of “Community of Serbia and China” in 2024, and the prevalence of Serbian public support for Russia, it is only fair to ask: should EU membership be the only alternative for Serbia? In September 2024, the US digital platform Politico, a highly influential Western mainstream media outlet, argued that Serbia is “one of the most important in-between places in the world today” and that “its fate will help determine which Great Power comes to dominate this century”. Serbia, as a military-neutral EU candidate country with Eastbound hedging strategies on the edges of the NATO umbrella, must thus face great power strategic narrative competition, including Western attempts at “de- hedging” and bandwagoning, indeed a host of “wedging” statecraft repertoire strategies—from coercion to inducement. Its fate will signpost whether an “independent” foreign policy is possible in Europe and how far the world has advanced in building a multipolar order.

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